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Current prediction of Colorado State-wide COVID-19 hospitalizations and fatalities.
We are very happy - it has been over a month since we needed to tune the Colorado CoVID-19 simulation. This week, after 30 days of predictions, we finally exceeded our 3% error limit. In looking at the model parameters, we decided that we had slightly under estimated the level of the public contact rate that was in effect after Governor Jerod Polis' last order on bar opening. We increased the PCR from 12 to 15, and it brought the model into alignment.
What does this mean?
If your business or organization is impacted by the oVID-19 spread, and whose isn't?, you now have a crystal ball to tell you what to expect over the next days, weeks, and month. If you need a more detailed analysis of the impact to your business - get in touch with our team.
The GunderFish model is a graph transition model which day by day follows groups of people through various states such as
Each transition from one state to another is determined by the probabilities provided by domain experts. In addition, the model allows us to add social controls and events on specific dates. So when Memorial Day weekend results in hundreds of people gathering for barbecues, we can increase the spread for those 3 days. When the Governor implements a stay at home policy on March 30, our model applies tighter restrictions on daily contacts until the policy is lifted.
The current model error is approximately 0.5% per day. So, when looking further out the accuracy is questionable. In general, it is a good model for the 3 - 4 weeks after the run date reported in the title (for example model 20200701c was run on 01 July 2020 using scenario 'c')
We have also added approximations of the effects of opening schools. These are much harder to accurately predict, since the spread rates for younger children are not precisely known. However, our models suggest that there will be a slow upswing in infections, hospitalizations, and fatalities in the months after the schools re-open.
In addition, with all the concerns over case reporting and increased testing, we updated our 'ground truthing' process to look primarily at reported fatalities, increasing our early pandemic accuracy significantly. For more details check out the current blog post.
This is based on the current announced policies covering Social Distancing and the current levels of testing. It will be updated weekly by the Outbreak Modelling team at GunderFish.
To learn more about what your business can expect over the coming months, contact us.
As part of our ongoing predictive modeling outreach, we are working with local experts to help people understand the effects of response policies on the impacts of the COVID-19 infections.
If you would like to test out our educational simulator - here is a link to the GunderFish COVID quick start guide